UFC 8/20 picks

[iahawk40]

UFC YTD: 4-0 +4.70 units


I should have been clearer in my reply to the UFC thread last time that I only bet 1/2 unit on Marquart @ +240, but it wasn't my thread and I didn't expect to go 4-0....LOL.

Here is what I like. Opinions are welcome; I could change my mind between now and fight night if you have a compelling enough arguement for me. Good luck to everyone.



Van Arsdale +230 1/2 unit .......Randy Couture is my hero; the man is a year older than I am and is still out there kicking the young guys' asses--but he looked a bit old against Liddell last time out and it would be any fighters' dream to beat Couture; Van Arsdale can get it done.



Martin +115 1/2 unit......12-0 in MMA; seems to be a toss-up fight; I'll take the dog.

Pragby +110........see above explanation; South Africans are just bad-asses in general; worth a shot.

Trigg +140.......Potential to be the best fight of the night, IMO. These guys should get after it big time and I am looking forward to this fight most of all on this card.

Like Liddell and Sanchez to win easily but will not lay those kinds of odds. Sanchez seems to be a bit of a cocky guy; may fade him next time out if he wins easily here.

 

[Royler]

Can't find fault with anything you're leaning on. I'm getting laughed at in my sewing circle for picking Van Arsdale over Couture, but there's more than age working against Randy in this fight. He is certainly the more seasoned MMA athlete, but no wrestler works well off their back and it's very likely Van Arsdale can put him there at some point.

Never seen Martin, but Irvin can really bang and gets a lot of respect from his training camp (Couture, Jackson, Trigg). Whether he's simply a gym performer remains to be seen. This will be a firefight, and two guys slugging it out in the center of the ring could fall in anyone's favor. I'd be taking the value, too.

Lutter runs very hot and cold: one minute he's knocking out an accredited striker, the next he's losing by submission to a wrestler. I wouldn't touch that fight.

A lot of people like St. Pierre in this fight. He's clearly the most athletic guy (next to Hughes) Trigg has had to face, and athleticism has gotten Trigg out of some tough spots before.

Gassaway is being brought in to lose against Sanchez, no more, no less.

The main event should be interesting. Horn is in the best shape of his career and has never been KOed in over 100 fights, so Liddell having an "easy" time doesn't appear to be in the cards. This fight could be incredibly boring, with Liddell hunting Horn down and trying to score points for five rounds. I doubt you'll see the big KO, since all of Chuck's highlight reel wins were against guys who wanted to stand and trade with him. Horn won't get into a scrap. He's too defensively-minded.

Best of luck to you.

 

[iahawk40]

Best of luck to you, too, Royler.

Great points about Horn vs Liddell that I neglected when handicapping this one. Hope its not a boring fight, but once these guys have a belt they want to keep it for a while, so your analysis is probably dead on here.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Lots of guys are predicting Horn for the upset here.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Good luck to all on the card tonight.

I would hate to be Horn in a few years. I can't imagine what his body is gonna feel long-term after being in over 100 MMA fights....ouch.

 

[RDavis1]

I don't see why there are so many people taking Van Arsdale, even at 3-1 odds.

Sure, he's a highly accomplished wrestler, but his MMA experience is extremely limited (considering his age...he's no spring chicken either), the opponents he has beaten (besides Marsh and Haseman..who are nowhere close to Couture's level) have been tomato cans..8-20-1 combined record, and has an extreme aversion to getting hit.

Would be extremely shocked if Couture lost this fight, especially coming off the loss to Liddell.

 

[dmmd98]

People like Horn because he has beaten Lidell before. While the odds are alittle high. Lidell is a much better fighter than 3 years ago. Horn has a great if he can go the full 5 since I believe he is in better shape how I still see Lidell pulling this one out either in round 2 or 3.

I also think Sylvia will beat Telligman but I can't bet since I have no idea how Sylvia will fight without the roids but at this point in time Telligman is all but washed up.

 

[iahawk40]

2-2 +1.50 units....I'll take it, a profit is a profit is a....arty:

 

[LEYKIS101]

Any opinions on the Pride/MMA card on Sunday?

 

[dmmd98]

Wanderlei Silva should win with ease. The guy is a monster the only way this guy will lose if he defeats himself but he is also one of the most pumped up MMA fighters out there so I don't see a letdown. Silva would have his way with Lidell if the two were to ever meet. However at -208 that is kinda pricey.

I like Allstair Overeem but he always worries me since from fight to fight you never know which fighter you are going to get. I am going to pass on this one since I respect Shogun Rua a lot. However if I had to make a bet I would take the underdog.

The bet I will make is Fedor Emelianeko over Mirko "Cro Cop" Flippovic. The line opened at -180 for Fedor but is getting bet down to -150ish now. Cro Cop is an animal with the great strikes and the best kicks in the game. However Fedor is bigger than Cro Cop and should take him to the ground where he will punish him which is how I see this fight ending up. I hope the betting goes much the same way as Lidell-Horn last week where it gets bet down since I am looking to bet Fedor in the -130/-140 range.

 

[Royler]

Fedor is now sitting at -130 at Pinnacle.

This is easily the cheapest number you will ever get on the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world today....unless, of course, people continue betting Cro Cop.

I'm sure the action is stemming from perpetual rumors that Fedor is not 100% because of a thumb injury. IMO, it's not going to matter. Fedor will get him down and submit him within five minutes. Mirko has a great sprawl, but Fedor doesn't take freestyle shots. He will clinch up and throw you. Mirko is not going to have any answers whatsoever for Fedor's ground attack.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Thanks for providing your thoughts DMMD98 and ROYLER. My buddy who tapes all of these was also telling me Fedor should win this one. I'm on Fedor -136. 5 Dimes had this line up about a month ago; I remember it opened -240/+180.

Best of luck

 

[sphincter]

royler....fedor was an unbelievable play at -130....regardless of the hand,we`ll never see those odds again...


btw...iahawk...great job on the first ufc..congrats.....but i believe that martin,van arsdale and trigg lost.....

if you played sanchez and liddell,you had `em both....

continued success...

pride appeared to be an amazing card...

 

[dmmd98]

Well needless to say I feel lucky that the only bet I made was on Fedor right now.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Excellent fights!

Rua was a beast.

Fedor had a real struggle with Cro-Cop; I was worried they would stop the fight due to the cuts/bloody nose for Fedor.

Why is Tank Abbott still around? haha